US consumer confidence jumped 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, The Conference Board said Tuesday, as retail gasoline prices eased from September. The index, up from a slightly upward-revised 84.2, revived confidence to June levels after a September reading the Associated Press called the lowest since April 2014 and below the pandemic low. Households still plan to spend less on services and durable goods over the next six months, a soft patch for small businesses that depend on local demand.
Key Takeaways
- The Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October.
- Present Situation Index reached 120.4; Expectations Index recovered to 72.6.
- Households still plan less spending on services and durable goods.
- Twelve-month inflation expectations stayed elevated at 5.8 percent.
How Consumer Confidence Moved in October
The Conference Board’s October release put the index at 91.7 (1985=100). The Present Situation Index rose 8.6 points to 120.4. The Expectations Index recovered 6.9 points to 72.6, only partly reversing three straight monthly declines. The survey covered October 1-21.
| Measure | October reading | Change from September |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 91.7 | +7.5 points, from 84.2 |
| Present Situation Index | 120.4 | +8.6 points |
| Expectations Index | 72.6 | +6.9 points |
Fergus McCormick, senior economist for global indicators at The Conference Board, said the gain was “driven primarily by improved perceptions of current and expected business conditions.” Net views of current conditions rose 4.8 percentage points to 3.6%. Some 21.4% called conditions “good,” up from 18.8%, and 17.8% called them “bad,” down from 20.0%.
The labor market differential improved 2.4 percentage points to +5.3%. Jobs were plentiful for 26.7%, up from 24.3%, while 21.4% said jobs were hard to get, unchanged from September. Expectations improved, but two components stayed negative: business conditions rose 5.7 points to -3.0%, the labor market rose 1.8 points to -11.1%, and household income rose 3.5 points to +6.7%.
Gas Prices Eased, but Costs Still Dominate
McCormick said the recovery was “in line with retail gasoline prices easing from September to October.” The Associated Press report on Yahoo Finance cited AAA’s average for regular gas at $4.27 on Tuesday, down from $4.48 a month earlier and above $3.05 a year earlier.
Write-in answers still showed frustration with rising costs. McCormick said references to prices, the high cost of food and groceries, and oil and diesel prices rose. Comments about war and conflict eased for a second straight month but remained elevated, he said. Average 12-month inflation expectations eased but remained elevated at 5.8%, and consumers still expected higher interest rates.
The AP reported consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, and 0.6% on the month, the biggest gain in five months. Six weeks earlier the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point, the first increase since 2023, to about 3.9%, and signaled another hike could come later in the year, though few expected one at this week’s Fed meeting. The AP said inflation has risen since President Donald Trump’s inauguration and that high prices potentially pose a midterm risk to Trump and Republicans.
Spending Plans Stay Soft Even as Confidence Rises
Consumers “planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months,” McCormick said. “This likely reflected higher price levels and persistent inflation, which eroded consumers’ purchasing power.” He added that confidence “remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years.”
On a six-month moving average, auto and home buying plans both declined slightly. Durable-goods plans fell across the board, and expected purchases of smartphones, personal computers, laptops, and tablets pulled back by over 1%. Service plans were generally lower except for movies, theater, live entertainment, and sporting events. The leading plans were:
- Restaurants, bars, and take-out
- Streaming, internet, and mobile services
- Utilities
- Health care
- Beauty and personal care, which fell from third to fifth
Hotel and airfare plans moderated. Vacation intentions fell to 43.3%, down 0.9 percentage points from an upwardly revised 44.2% in September, with more domestic trips and fewer foreign visits. Confidence rose, on a six-month average, only for consumers under 35 and households earning $100k or more. Gen X, baby boomers, and the Silent Generation still trailed Gen Z and millennials, and the October gain was much stronger among Republicans.
What the Split Means for Small Businesses
The useful split for owners and managers is a higher index beside weaker buying plans. A return to June’s level is not a spending recovery.
Restaurants, bars, and take-out remain the top service intention, so food service is the relative holdout. Beauty and personal care falling from third to fifth is a sharper signal for salons and specialty retailers. Electronics face a pullback of more than 1%.
Grocery and fuel complaints, inflation expectations at 5.8%, gas well above a year earlier, and a Fed key rate of about 3.9% sit beside consumers who still expect higher rates. For small firms, that argues for defending categories households already rank highly and treating big-ticket goods as a slower lane.
Staffing calls for the same restraint. A labor differential of only +5.3%, plus mentions of jobs and employment as an area of concern that ticked up, is a thin basis for adding hours.
